The IMD estimates that there is a 51% chance that the monsoon rains will be insufficient or below average. Technically speaking, the IMD is issuing a warning due to a reasonable likelihood of below-average rainfall this year. We must wait until the IMD produces a second monsoon forecast in June that is, ideally, more precise and detailed so that we can make better judgments. We investigate while utilizing the first forecast.
Source: Skymet Weather
The IMD classifies a year as an all-India drought when the monsoon rains as a whole are less than 10% of their LPA value and affect more than 20% of India’s land area. India has had droughts in five of the past 30 years: 2002, 2004, 2009, 2014, and 2015. Despite the fact that the LPA deviation in 2018 was (-) 9% and the monsoon deficits were equally substantial, the year did not qualify as a drought year.
The 2009 drought, which had a deficit of around 21.8%, was the worst in these 30 years. The droughts of 2014 and 2015 were especially exceptional since India had only before experienced consecutive droughts three times in its 113-year rainfall history: in 1904/1905, 1965/1966, and 1986/1987.
Another illustration of how interrelated the world is is El Nino. India’s south-west monsoon lessens when the Pacific Ocean’s waters (in the 3.4 zone) warm up (between the months of January to September). La Nina is a phenomenon that occurs when these waters cool down (successively by at least 0.5 degrees Celsius sustainably for some time), and it is linked to successful Indian monsoons. El Nino-Southern Oscillation, or ENSO, is the name given to the oscillation between El Nino and La Nina, which can persist for three to seven years.
El Nino and the Indian monsoons don’t necessarily go hand in hand. In just nine of the 15 El Nino years since 1951, India experienced drought. According to this, there is a 60% chance that an El Nino will cause a drought in India.
In the most recent El Nino year, 2018u201319, India’s monsoon deficit was 9%, falling just shy of the 10-% drought threshold by 1%. Other meteorological phenomena like the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) and the Eurasian Snow Cover may be some of the distinguishing features in this situation.
Source: Money Control
At the macro level, India is quickly gaining drought resilience; nevertheless, at the micro level, we still need backup plans for things like seeds, advisories, and agricultural practises, among other things. Monsoon rains’ frequency is vital, but their geographic and weekly distribution are also crucial. In addition, unusual temperature and moisture levels are causing bug infestations.
The Government of India modified its drought manual in light of its experiences managing the drought in 2014u201315. It offers direction on a number of drought management issues. For efficient and prompt management of the drought situation as it develops, the officers at various levels should get training as soon as possible.
We can only hope that the monsoon rains live up to their reputation as being essential to the livelihoods and economy of India.
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