World Cup last-16 predictions: USA can dump out Netherlands

The World Cup round of 16 begins on Saturday, and our tipster Jones Knows is there to find some juicy betting angles.Saturday, 3 p.m., Netherlands vs. USAFavorite backers’ heads must be spinning in this World Cup, and there could be more surprises in the last-16, beginning with this match, with the Netherlands being expected to advance at 2/5 to the quarterfinals. This equates to a 72 percent chance. Geoff, not for me.A simple analysis of the expected goal data from three games, albeit a small sample size, puts the United States in the driver’s seat for this tie.Despite producing a negative expected goal process (-0.33) and losing both expected goal battles against Senegal and Ecuador, the Netherlands won Group A. Cody Gakpo’s sharp shooting is covering up some concerning flaws in their process.The United States, on the other hand, has done better than expected. In the middle of the field, Yunus Musah, Tyler Adams, and Weston McKinnie have shown grit and skill. Against England and Iran, that trio was in command.With such thin odds on all Argentina-based bets, it’s not a great betting heat, but those looking for an angle to get with them at a reasonable price may want to take the 5/6 with Bet on an Argentina win and under 3.5 goals. Every one of their last 11 competitive wins has come under the 3.5 line, including both of their World Cup victories. The tactic could be job done, move on.Prediction: France 2-0 Poland, 3 p.m. Sunday — play Super Six here!No matter how much my heart wants to find a sustainable and logical reason to back Poland so that England can potentially have a cakewalk quarterfinal, my head simply won’t allow it. It’s a mystery why the Poles are still in the competition.
Aside from the win, Saudi Arabia failed to score in the other two matches, which was not surprising given the expected goal data. They scored 0.47 of the expected non-penalty goals in games against Mexico and Argentina. To stop a very exciting French team that lacks depth but has the most dangerous first-choice attack in the competition, Wojciech Szczesny and Robert Lewandowski will need to have the games of their lives.
The French front four of Kylian Mbappe, Olivier Giroud, Antoni Griezmann, and Ousmane Dembele are all favorites in the goal scorer market. Dembele is the most expensive of the four at 9/4 to score anytime with Sky Bet, which seems a little steep given his recent form. He’s had four shots in two starts, with an expected goal return of 0.42. He is capable of scoring in a France victory.PREDICTION: 2-0 England vs. Senegal, Sunday, 7 p.m.Set pieces will be crucial for England in what is expected to be a tense match.Gareth Southgate understands the significance of set pieces in tournaments. I’m sure he’s well aware of how many goals are scored this way during this stage of a World Cup. 31 goals have been cut from set pieces in the last 48 regular-season games, not including penalties. It’s a per-game average of 0.6, which means that every two games, a goal is scored from a corner or free-kick situation.England is among the most dominant teams in such situations, scoring 11 of their 29 non-penalty goals in major tournaments under Southgate. Harry Maguire has been responsible for two of those goals, and Sky Bet has him at a massive 16/1 to score a header in this one.
Maguire has seven goals in 51 caps for his country and is the target of every set-piece pumped into the England box, so when he pulls on the England shirt, you get a good run for your money. Senegal conceded from a corner in their win over Ecuador, and you can bet your life that Southgate will devise a strategy with Maguire at the forefront to exploit any weaknesses in the opposition back line.