With relation to the growth numbers, there are two procedural factors to be aware of.
First, over the course of three years, the National Statistical Office (NSO) revises the forecasts through a 6-step update process, starting with the First Annual Estimate (1AE) and ending with the Third Revised Estimate (3RE). This process incorporates a steadily growing amount of new and updated data from various sources, including households, corporations, small and medium-sized businesses, and surveys, all of which are released with varying delays.
Two, There are two perspectives used to measure and report the GDP. The first comes from the side of output, and the second comes from the side of demand. These figures are estimated using various volume indicators, business financial results, surveys, data from the banking industry, etc.
Source: Deccan Herald
The GVA has grown by 6.6% over the past two years. Agriculture, industry, and services each contributed 0.5 percent, 0.4 percent, and 5.7 percent to the overall rise. Manufacturing is thought to have had the biggest decline, with its contribution falling to 0.1% from FY22.
The group commerce, hotels, transport, and communication contributed the majority of the segment’s revenue, which is likely a reflection of the consequences of the post-Covid-19 opening. When the annual growth prediction for FY23 is broken down by quarter, the growth impulse has slowed down during the course of the year, decreasing from 13.2% in Q1 to 6.3% in Q2 to 4.4% in Q3. But, Q4 growth will need to be 5.1%, which is well within the realm of possibility, for entire FY23 growth to remain at 7%.
Source: Study IQ IAS
According to estimates, nominal GDP growth decreased from roughly 16 percent in FY22 to 12 percent in FY23. This shows a decline in inflation. Inflation measured by the wholesale price index has decreased from 11.1% to 6.4%. In any case, FY23 is nearly done. The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) and the government’s Chief Economic Adviser both expect the GDP for FY24 to be between 6.4 and 6.5 percent. Unfortunately, there is now too much ambiguity, particularly on the international front, and it may be necessary to consider several scenarios in order to determine the most likely outcomes.
Notwithstanding the quirks in the forecasting techniques, economic activity is durable and growth is still strong. Given the sharp increase in loan interest rates brought on by RBI’s rapid repo rate increases, this is extraordinary.
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