The error margin for each projection is 5%, plus or minus. The IMD forecast is close to the highest end of normal, while the Skymet forecast is close to the lowest end of below normal. Especially in light of the fact that it is known that weather forecasts can be inaccurate, the difference between the two over a four-month period could not be that significant. The monsoon and other meteorological phenomena are impacted by a variety of variables.
Source: Times of India
Due to other mitigating factors, IMD does not anticipate that El Nino, a warming phenomena in the Pacific Ocean, will have a significant adverse effect on the Indian monsoon this year. The South-West monsoon will be normal or close to normal for the fifth consecutive year if the IMD prediction comes true. But as experience has shown, it’s not just the overall amount of rain that falls over time that matters.
The geography, crop patterns, and agricultural practices in India are all diverse. The monsoon continues to have a significant impact on the economy as well as the agriculture of the nation. Rainfall’s spatial and temporal dispersion is far more significant than its overall volume.
Depending on how the monsoon has traditionally progressed, agricultural operations are timed differently across the nation. Even normal rainfall, by quantum, won’t aid the farmer if this schedule is disturbed. A farmer can only suffer harm when it doesn’t rain when he needs it and when it does rain unexpectedly.
Source: CNBC-TV 18
IMD has not been able to forecast this distribution with any degree of accuracy. Prior to the monsoon, it generates a more precise forecast, but that does not satisfy the requirement for a forecast for a specific region during a specified time period. IMD has not yet created the resources and knowledge for that.
Extreme weather phenomena that are linked to climate change make the situation worse. Excessive rainfall, lack of precipitation, heat waves, shifting wind patterns, and other severe occurrences have increased in frequency and have an impact on all aspects of agricultural production, from sowing through harvesting. Despite the usual rains last year, a heat wave significantly reduced wheat yield. In order to be ready for both regular and below-average rainfall as well as extreme weather occurrences, the Union and state governments will need to develop strategies for dealing with any unforeseen circumstances.
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