Despite suffering significant casualties in efforts to strengthen its positions in Eastern Ukraine, it appears that Russia has reclaimed the initiative at this time. In Eastern and Southern Ukraine, Ukrainian forces had retaken some lost territory the previous year, but their progress seems to have halted for the past five months.
Source: The Guardian
While the military situation in Ukraine may take time to improve, Western public opinion about the conflict is also evolving gradually. Some argue that attempts should be made to bring the combatants to the bargaining table since they view an attrition war as one that will simply prolong the suffering of the Ukrainian people. To break the deadlock, the hawkish factions are calling for more substantial backing for Ukraine in the shape of tanks, aircraft, and other cutting-edge weaponry.
The risks in this situation are more in the operational details than they are in the type and quantity of equipment that will be provided. It seems that it will take at least a year for the West to successfully arm Ukraine with modern tanks and aircraft. This is the very minimum time necessary to teach Ukrainian workers to run this machinery.
A few dozen tanks or planes, though they will make things more challenging, are unlikely to affect what the Russians see as a positive trend in the conflict. Yet if this technology is introduced soon, the trick will be in how it is used.
Source: Kings and Generals
Western missile systems will need to be operated by non-Ukrainians due to their rapid introduction. The Russians are unlikely to consider these individuals as impartial mercenaries, even if they are sheep-dipped military members who are officially released for the duration of an unapproved tour of service.
In the event that the Ukrainian Air Force chooses the second choice, Russia will legitimately bomb those bases. The governments and citizens of these nations are not likely to be in favor of this idea.
Common sense would dictate that now is the moment to strive for a negotiation-based resolution to this conflict, but so far this war has defied all accepted wisdom.
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